British Airways: The Next Big Battle?

The Times has an interesting article on the arm wrestling that is going on behind the scenes as Airbus and Boeing are jockeying to get themselves a hunk of the next really big aircraft order, reputed to be worth in the neighborhood of $15 billion USD. The Independent said last year it could be a lot bigger-on the order of $30 billion USD.

At present, British Airways has a fleet that looks like this:

A319-100 .................33
A320-100 ................. 5
A320-200 ...............22 (6 on order)

B737-300...................5
B737-400..................19
B737-500 ...................9
B747-400 ...................57
B757-200 ...................13
B767-300ER...............21
B777-200....................3
B777-200ER .............40 (4 + 6 orders)

In addition, BA has options for quite a number of A320s and members of the A320 family.

The Airbus short haulers operate out of Heathrow, and the B737s operate out of Gatwick to points in Europe and the UK.

BA announced that it was initially seeking 34 aircraft to replace its long haul fleet, and that it was considering the A330, A350, A380, B787, B777 and B747-8.

If I was a betting man, which I'm not, I'd have to say that the short hauler orders, such as they are, are going to go to Airbus. They can deliver, they've got an incentive to deal because they're short on cash, and the capacities of the aircraft themselves do not appear to offer anything much to choose from in this class.

The real action is going to be in the long haul, large capacity class.

There, we have the B747-8 matched against the A380, and the A330 and A350XWB matched against the B787 and B777. Airbus has been pitching the A330 as a low cost gap filler until the A350XWB arrives on the scene seven years hence barring no unforeseen delays, and Finnair's bought that particular fish.

If we look at it from a project management standpoint, Airbus has not proved with the A380 that it can handle a large project or get it to the market on time or on price. Plus there's the ongoing issue of weight on that project, which nobody but me seems to be concerned about-of which more in the archives.

So in the heavy hauler class, advantage Boeing. The A380 is as dead as last week's salmon.

In the medium heavy hauler class, buying the B777 today is likely a better choice than buying the A350XWB for delivery seven years hence and stuffing the cracks with stopgap A330s.

In the medium heavy hauler class, then, advantage Boeing.

The real question on everyone's mind has to be whether British Airways will buy the B787, and whether the A350XWB has any traction. I would say the chances are slim that the A350XWB is going to win over BA, as it is not even in a state of product development that would allow a customer to identify whether it has any advantages.

No amount of incentives can change that, and I am willing to bet that Airbus' mishandling of the A380 program and its diffident approach to whatever the A350 turns out to be will tell the tale.

Stay tuned-this is going to be interesting.