Friday, June 23, 2006

Cassandra or Savant? Take Your Pick

Richard Aboulafia, the aviation industry analyst has some hard words to say about the woes that are kicking Airbus in the shins lately.

He's arguing that the managers at Airbus ought to take a hard look at the A380 program and, if the numbers don't add up, killfile the project.

He makes the observation that an awful lot of resource dollars being spent on very large carriers are chasing a pretty small slice of the market by value, and the middle of the market is where Airbus ought to be aiming its engineering dollars and talent.

Now. Either you think Aboulafia is the Great Satan complete with horns and forked tail, and a tool in the pay of a massive conspiracy to take down Airbus, or you think he's a reasonably well informed critic of trends in the aviation industry.


At 12:10 PM, Blogger G. F. McDowell said...

How about a stopped clock that is right twice a day?

At 8:40 PM, Blogger Robert Luedeman, attorney at law said...

Either you think he's a stooge in the pay of some giant conspiracy or you have to concede that he knows an awful lot aviation business and gets paid a lot of money to do it.

Any way you slice it it's opinion and if you like what you're hearing that's fine and if you don't you change the channel. That is what is known as the marketplace of ideas.

The one thing that's not safe is ignoring people who know a lot because their opinions conflict with one's preconceived biases.

Richard has not been specifically and unreasonably anti Airbus-why should he be? It gives him plenty more to talk and get paid about, right? What he has done is consistently point out the flaws in the Airbus business case, which are now yielding unpalatable fruit.

Even a confirmed A380 aficionado would concede that as in the case of the 748, it's a big chunk of money chasing a small slice of the market.

Who knows? That's what's interesting about the aviation business-the unexpectedness of it all.

By the way, nice to see you around, G.


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